AI算力+卫星互联网+光通信+6G,“十五五”最强主线与核心公司布局梳理
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来源：市场分析报告
国内通信行业已经步入以“科技创新+新质生产力”为主线的新周期。政策层面，从“十三五”到“十四五”，国家对科技行业的重视不断提升，最新“十五五”预期将以新质生产力为核心，推动科技创新持续引领。通信行业受益于宏观政策延续性，资本开支结构优化、AI技术落地和新兴产业共振，行业主线更加清晰。
报告系统梳理了通信行业核心驱动力及未来五年四大产业主线，包括：运营商第二成长曲线、光通信与算力链升级、卫星互联网规模化突破、量子科技产业化提速。
通信运营商方面，行业格局稳固。三大运营商云业务持续放量，科大讯飞、国盾量子、星网锐捷等公司成为行业代表，运营商创新业务带动行业迈向第二成长曲线。AI驱动下，主设备厂商、服务器、光纤光缆企业业绩弹性扩大，浪潮信息、中科曙光、紫光股份、沪电股份等参与算力底座与产业链上游，PCB、光芯片、连接器环节同步受益。
行业财务数据进一步验证产业趋势。2025年上半年通信行业营收达到1.32万亿元，同比增长2.93%；剔除三大运营商后，相关公司实现营收同比增长12.53%，毛利同比提升8%。算力与AI相关产业链板块，2025年一季度和二季度均实现超40%的营收同比增长，光模块和温控环节毛利率均高于30%，部分环节毛利率同比提升超过5个百分点。行业存货均值显著增加，反映上游原材料供给趋紧，板块扩张周期持续。
细分领域分化明显。算力板块成为最大亮点，AI大模型对光模块、液冷、铜连接、存储、网络互联等基础硬件提出更高需求，A股相关公司2025年上半年增速突出。光通信板块受益于云厂商资本开支，产业链国产替代趋势持续推进，龙头企业市占率提升。物联网领域车联网、工业物联网环节保持高增速，连接器、智能控制器等细分公司增长突出。
卫星互联网板块在2025年初出现业绩回升拐点，受益于低轨星座组网加速和商业航天资本投入。北斗导航与卫星互联网双线并进，相关上市公司围绕卫星制造、星座组网、地面终端、应用服务多点布局，营收同比增速大幅提升。政策持续加码，未来有望实现从“0到1”的技术突破到“1到100”的大规模商业化落地。
量子科技被列为“十五五”重点发展方向。量子通信、量子计算领域国内企业加速布局，云平台与算法不断迭代，市场规模有望持续攀升。运营商、国盾量子等公司在量子安全通信、算网融合等环节投入明显，推动产业链逐步完备。
整体看，通信行业正经历技术创新驱动与产业结构升级的“共振”期。运营商盈利能力持续改善，分红回报加大，资产价值与成长弹性同步显现。AI和卫星互联网相关板块高增长持续，量子科技、6G、商业航天等未来产业加速落地，头部公司市值优势集中。
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